Every prediction, resolved against reality at 30/90/180 days
Running hit rate: no claims resolved yet
| Made | Claim | Horizon | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Brent crude remains above $95/barrel on average through Q3 2025, even if US-Iran diplomatic signals improve, because physical supply chain friction (truck rerouting, pipeline outages, tanker insurance costs) sustains a floor that pre-crisis models underestimate. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-16 | Gold (XAUUSD) will outperform Brent crude oil on a total-return basis over the next 90 days, measured from today's spot prices. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-08 | UK 30-year gilt yields will rise by at least 30 basis points from their July 2025 level within 180 days, as BoE QT accelerates without sufficient DMO absorption offsetting supply. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-05 | Brent crude will trade below $85/barrel within 90 days as Venezuelan supply ramp-up expectations and diplomatic deal-making deflate the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in prices. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-01 | Gold spot price will be at least 8% higher than its August 31, 2026 close within 90 calendar days, recovering the war-driven sell-off and exceeding the pre-strike level. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-29 | The Fed funds rate will be at least 25bps lower than its level on the day of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech within 180 days of that speech. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-25 | Brent crude will trade below $82/barrel at some point before October 15, 2025, as Hormuz closure fails to materialize and sanctions-induced demand destruction in Iran reduces net global tension premium. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-22 | The 2s30s Treasury spread will widen by at least 30 basis points from its level on June 1, 2025 by September 1, 2025, as the Treasury increases bill and short-coupon issuance share relative to long bonds | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-19 | US small cap (Russell 2000) will outperform US large cap (S&P 500) by at least 2 percentage points over the next 90 days as tariff volatility cycles compress and domestically-oriented firms benefit from each pause/deal resolution. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-15 | Bitcoin will trade below $55,000 at least once within 90 days as political controversy around the Trump crypto banking licence triggers regulatory backlash headlines and risk-off sentiment in digital assets. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-12 | US investment-grade corporate bond spreads for data center and AI infrastructure issuers (including CoreWeave, Equinix, and similar) will widen by at least 50 basis points from current levels within 180 days as supply overwhelms demand for AI-linked debt. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-08 | The equal-weighted basket of LIN + APD will outperform the SOX semiconductor index on a total-return basis over the next 180 days, as accelerating fab retooling cycles boost industrial gas volumes while chip obsolescence risk compresses semiconductor multiples. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-05 | Brent crude will trade below $75/bbl on at least 5 trading days before November 1, 2026, as Hormuz de-escalation materializes and war premium contracts. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) will outperform the equal-weighted average of CRWV (CoreWeave) and NBIS (Nebius) on a total return basis over the next 180 days, measured from July 1 2025. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) will underperform the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) on a total-return basis over the next 180 days, measured from July 1 2025 to December 28 2025. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | US import price index for goods from China will show year-over-year increases exceeding 8% in at least two of the next three monthly BLS releases (July, August, September 2025). | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | The Russell 2000 will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 4 percentage points over the next 90 days as import-cost margin compression disproportionately hits smaller firms. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | Brent crude will trade above $85/barrel on at least one day before October 15, 2025, driven by a renewed Hormuz transit disruption or failed diplomatic framework. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | S&P 500 Industrials sector (XLI) will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 3% over the next 90 days as margin compression shows up in Q2/Q3 earnings guidance. | 90d | OPEN |