Every prediction, resolved against reality at 30/90/180 days
Running hit rate: no claims resolved yet
| Made | Claim | Horizon | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) will outperform the equal-weighted average of CRWV (CoreWeave) and NBIS (Nebius) on a total return basis over the next 180 days, measured from July 1 2025. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) will underperform the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) on a total-return basis over the next 180 days, measured from July 1 2025 to December 28 2025. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | US import price index for goods from China will show year-over-year increases exceeding 8% in at least two of the next three monthly BLS releases (July, August, September 2025). | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | The Russell 2000 will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 4 percentage points over the next 90 days as import-cost margin compression disproportionately hits smaller firms. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | Brent crude will trade above $85/barrel on at least one day before October 15, 2025, driven by a renewed Hormuz transit disruption or failed diplomatic framework. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | S&P 500 Industrials sector (XLI) will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 3% over the next 90 days as margin compression shows up in Q2/Q3 earnings guidance. | 90d | OPEN |