Every prediction, resolved against reality at 30/90/180 days
Running hit rate: no claims resolved yet
| Made | Claim | Horizon | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | The FTSE Nareit Data Center REIT index will outperform the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) on a total return basis over the next 180 days, measured from today. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-11-02 | The S&P 500 Energy sector (XLE) will underperform spot gold by at least 8 percentage points on a total return basis over the next 180 days, as capex discipline signals demand-peak hedging by management teams. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-30 | The NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) will recover to within 3% of its April 2025 pre-earnings level within 90 days, as AI capex fears prove cyclically typical rather than structurally destructive. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-27 | Within 180 days of Anthropic's IPO pricing, at least two of the top five AI-focused public companies (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, NVDA) will report quarter-over-quarter declines in operating margins attributable to AI infrastructure spending, as disclosed in earnings calls or 10-Q filings. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-24 | The S&P Global Clean Energy Index and the S&P 500 Utilities Sector will each outperform the Nasdaq-100 on a total return basis over the next 180 days, measured from July 1 2025 to December 28 2025. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-19 | The NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) will outperform the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index by at least 5 percentage points on a total-return basis over the next 180 days, as AI governance theatrics reduce rather than increase regulatory discount. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-16 | The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) will be higher on September 30, 2025 than its level on July 1, 2025, meaning the current drawdown is a trough not a trend. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-13 | NVDA will outperform the equal-weighted basket of AVGO, ORCL, and MRVL by at least 15 percentage points on a total return basis over the next 90 days from July 2025. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-10 | Gold spot price will be at or above $2,500/oz within 90 days, reflecting embedded energy-supply-driven inflation expectations rather than a quick reversion to pre-disruption levels. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-07 | The S&P Global Clean Energy Index and/or uranium spot price will outperform the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) on a total-return basis over the next 90 days, measured from July 2025. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-10-03 | If the S&P 500 experiences a drawdown of 8% or more from its July 2025 high within 180 days, gold (XAUUSD) will outperform the S&P 500 total return by at least 12 percentage points over the same period. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-29 | The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index (BGL7 or equivalent) will underperform physical gold by at least 10 percentage points on a total return basis within 180 days of Anthropic's IPO pricing date, as AI hype capital rotates to safety. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-26 | The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) equal-weighted will outperform the SOX cap-weighted index by at least 3 percentage points over 180 days, as smaller semi names capturing networking/optical share gain relative to Nvidia's dominance premium. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-22 | The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will be at least 10% lower on March 21, 2027 than its level on September 21, 2026. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-19 | Brent crude remains above $95/barrel on average through Q3 2025, even if US-Iran diplomatic signals improve, because physical supply chain friction (truck rerouting, pipeline outages, tanker insurance costs) sustains a floor that pre-crisis models underestimate. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-16 | Gold (XAUUSD) will outperform Brent crude oil on a total-return basis over the next 90 days, measured from today's spot prices. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-08 | UK 30-year gilt yields will rise by at least 30 basis points from their July 2025 level within 180 days, as BoE QT accelerates without sufficient DMO absorption offsetting supply. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-05 | Brent crude will trade below $85/barrel within 90 days as Venezuelan supply ramp-up expectations and diplomatic deal-making deflate the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in prices. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-09-01 | Gold spot price will be at least 8% higher than its August 31, 2026 close within 90 calendar days, recovering the war-driven sell-off and exceeding the pre-strike level. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-29 | The Fed funds rate will be at least 25bps lower than its level on the day of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech within 180 days of that speech. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-25 | Brent crude will trade below $82/barrel at some point before October 15, 2025, as Hormuz closure fails to materialize and sanctions-induced demand destruction in Iran reduces net global tension premium. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-22 | The 2s30s Treasury spread will widen by at least 30 basis points from its level on June 1, 2025 by September 1, 2025, as the Treasury increases bill and short-coupon issuance share relative to long bonds | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-19 | US small cap (Russell 2000) will outperform US large cap (S&P 500) by at least 2 percentage points over the next 90 days as tariff volatility cycles compress and domestically-oriented firms benefit from each pause/deal resolution. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-15 | Bitcoin will trade below $55,000 at least once within 90 days as political controversy around the Trump crypto banking licence triggers regulatory backlash headlines and risk-off sentiment in digital assets. | 90d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-12 | US investment-grade corporate bond spreads for data center and AI infrastructure issuers (including CoreWeave, Equinix, and similar) will widen by at least 50 basis points from current levels within 180 days as supply overwhelms demand for AI-linked debt. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-08 | The equal-weighted basket of LIN + APD will outperform the SOX semiconductor index on a total-return basis over the next 180 days, as accelerating fab retooling cycles boost industrial gas volumes while chip obsolescence risk compresses semiconductor multiples. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-08-05 | Brent crude will trade below $75/bbl on at least 5 trading days before November 1, 2026, as Hormuz de-escalation materializes and war premium contracts. | 90d | DUE | |
| 2026-07-27 | FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) will outperform the equal-weighted average of CRWV (CoreWeave) and NBIS (Nebius) on a total return basis over the next 180 days, measured from July 1 2025. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) will underperform the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) on a total-return basis over the next 180 days, measured from July 1 2025 to December 28 2025. | 180d | OPEN | |
| 2026-07-27 | US import price index for goods from China will show year-over-year increases exceeding 8% in at least two of the next three monthly BLS releases (July, August, September 2025). | 90d | DUE | |
| 2026-07-27 | The Russell 2000 will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 4 percentage points over the next 90 days as import-cost margin compression disproportionately hits smaller firms. | 90d | DUE | |
| 2026-07-27 | Brent crude will trade above $85/barrel on at least one day before October 15, 2025, driven by a renewed Hormuz transit disruption or failed diplomatic framework. | 90d | DUE | |
| 2026-07-27 | S&P 500 Industrials sector (XLI) will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 3% over the next 90 days as margin compression shows up in Q2/Q3 earnings guidance. | 90d | DUE |